Despite the uncertainties and challenges facing South Africa’s residential property market, Lightstone’s scenarios for house price inflation (HPI) in 2022 are similar to what was anticipated for 2021, and what actually played out. Last year’s HPI was 4.35%, just above the mid HPI scenario of the 4% forecasted. We have settled on 4.2% as our mid HPI scenario for 2022 and this could nudge higher if reformist government policies take precedence over the friction within the ruling party. Time will tell!

It has been another year of challenge, change and opportunity for South Africa’s property market. Covid-19 is lingering on although vaccinations are lifting defenses against the virus – and the mood generally. The low interest rates certainty helped the property market, although the unrest in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng caused significant damage and rattled confidence. So what has changed and who were the winners and losers in 2021?

Our lead story this month, Western Cape is the first choice for semigrants, highlights a residential property trend which has accelerated in the Covid-19 era – middle class homeowners are opting to semigrate to coastal and country areas, mostly in the Western Cape.

Despite poor economic conditions and socio-political uncertainty, A buyers’ market looks at how low interest rates have been a boost for the property market – and semigration, buying up and safe living are providing areas of opportunity although first-time buyers appear to have lost some of their appetite.

South Africa's property market is recovering from a 16% drop in transfers in 2020, primarily the result of Covid-19, and returning to pre-2020 numbers.

Women have bought more properties than men in every quarter from Q1-2019 to Q2-2021, either by themselves or in partnership with men – but men nevertheless are involved in 47% of all property transactions, either on their own or in partnership with a woman.

South Africa’s property and automotive markets provide a barometer of how the country’s economy is performing. In recent years, both property and automotive sales have drifted sideways and downwards reflecting the generally difficult economic times and now Covid-19 and its consequences.

… but finding them, no matter where they are, is about to become much easier with our new partnership. Homeownership preferences vary from suburb to suburb and from city to city, reflecting both local and national drivers.

One year on and the data clearly shows just how differently the pandemic and lockdowns have impacted our big metro cities and small towns.

The way the world works was already evolving before Covid-19 disrupted life so dramatically. But over the past year, change has accelerated exponentially to meet the radically changed circumstances.

Lightstone’s scenarios suggest prices could rise by between 2.1% and 5.2% in 2021. Residential property prices defied Covid-19 conventional wisdom in 2020, and house price inflation ended close to 3% at the end of the year.

As the year draws to a close, Lightstone shares some interesting data gathered over the past few months.

First-time home buyers are entering the residential property market in the highest numbers in the R700k to R1,5m valuation bands as opposed to less expensive valuation bands.

The “feel good” factor is returning to the residential market, although just how quickly it will recover, and to what levels, is still too hard to call. Data does not yet reflect the transactions of the last three months which estate agents have described as “surprisingly brisk”.

While the full impact of the pandemic is yet to be felt, it is creating opportunities throughout the residential property market – and high up on the list is coastal property. As South Africa moves to Lockdown Level 1, more and more families are looking to swap the hustle of big city living for the coast, where nature, family and lifestyle come first.

More women are first time home buyers in South Africa than men. That’s an empowering shift from previous trends.

Lightstone, the leading provider of property analysis and insights, has released the results of how properties perform in the Sectional Title, Freehold and Estate property sales market.* Of the Freehold and Sectional Title property sales, we see the ‘Generation Z’ – registered between the years 1991 and 2000 of property sales leading the charge with a steady price performance increase, year on year.

The Cape Town Property Market was placed under the spotlight during the recent Cape Town’s Property Buyer’s Show and we provided analyses on the data and trends in this category.

After the economic recession in 2008, house price inflation in the last decade showed lacklustre growth, only peaking at 6.35% at the end of 2014. In 2019, house price inflation ended just below 2% - the first time that actual inflation came in under Lightstone's low road scenario forecast, which was at exactly 2%.

Amidst a tough socio-economic environment and bold question marks being raised around political and public enterprise situations, this year has seen so many encouraging results and positive starting blocks for 2020 for South Africa.

Riverside View, located in the Northern Suburbs of Johannesburg is the suburb with the highest volume of first-time buyers in Gauteng. The Riverside View Housing and Development Programme (RDP) began in 2016 and has offered first time buyers the unique opportunity to enter the property market.

In a recent review of property buyers’ demographics we reveal that nationally buyers aged 65 and over differ vastly in buying patterns. The three major provinces, Western Cape, Gauteng and Kwazulu Natal are seeing different trends for these buyers.

On the 9th August 1956, 20 000 women marched to the Union Buildings in Pretoria to petition against the pass laws being extended to women, which we celebrate as Women’s Day. Today, not only do we commemorate this significant day, but dedicate an entire month on empowering women – in business, in the home, in socio-economic circumstances, in government and constitutionally.

Lightstone, the leading provider of property analysis and insights, has released the results of how properties perform in the Sectional Title, Freehold and Estate property sales market.* Of the Freehold and Sectional Title property sales, we see the ‘Generation Z’ – registered between the years 1991 and 2000 of property sales leading the charge with a steady price performance increase, year on year.

The Cape Town Property Market was placed under the spotlight during the recent Cape Town’s Property Buyer’s Show and we provided analyses on the data and trends in this category.

Positive Sentiment Reflects Amidst an Uncertain Climate

As 2018 draws to a close and people head to their planned holiday spots with friends and families, Lightstone share some interesting conversation thought starters and ‘Did You Knows’ based on an incredibly busy year full of statistical discoveries. Here are our Top 8:

Millennials - defined as individuals born between 1977 and 1994, are likely to spend 3.04 times more on their first time home than the generation before them, according to Lightstone Property, one of South Africa’s leading providers of property information.

Lightstone, provides analytics to evaluate trends and segmentation within all the property sectors, and in a recent evaluation of the total eight million South African properties, it is revealed that the affordable sector (low and mid value) is by far the largest portion of the residential property market, amounting to 71,4% of the total volume of properties in South Africa.

Increased security, affordability and the communal lifestyle are all alluring aspects when potential buyers consider sectional title properties. The quick definition of a sectional title unit is a property in an undivided share of a common property.

It was not so long ago that women did not have equal rights, nor were they allowed any ownership of property or other entities. Luckily, the picture is much different and today women are empowered and celebrated.

Owing to the increasing positive local sentiment since the start of 2018, foreign ownership in the local property market has experienced an encouraging upsurge.

Not many people will argue that the first quarter of 2018 was an uncertain period with the announcement of Jacob Zuma’s resignation followed by corruption charges, the inauguration of the new president as well as the start of discussions for government to proceed with land expropriation without compensation

Reports of the devastating drought in the Western Cape has been rampant on all media channels. The continued threat of Day Zero has had a direct effect on the tourism industry, wildlife, the agriculture and in a recent statement by the Minister of Economic

Residential property is a worthwhile investment vehicle, providing many young professionals and recently wedded couples with a solid asset to start building their wealth at a relatively early age.

Property remains one of the oldest and most popular investments globally, and property forecasters have recently mentioned that the biggest deterrents for buyers are not only the economy, but having confidence in the location of the property.

Some of the chief considerations when purchasing a home is location (distance to local amenities), school district and long-term value. Lightstone, one of South Africa’s leading analytics and data companies today release their analysis on how the population density in prevalent Johannesburg and Cape Town suburbs is directly affecting drive time during peak hours.

In the past 12 months, Lightstone has picked up a decline in house price inflation in the luxury band, comprising homes with a selling price of more than R1.5-million. This sparked data analysts to ask the question, “Are high-end property owners scaling down?”

A home is more than a house and the land on which it is built, it is a place where memories are made and a safe place in which we can genuinely express ourselves. Consequently, the choice of home and its location are decisions that need to be carefully considered.

Buying your first home is always exciting. Finding the perfect area, choosing the property that’s just right for you, budgeting, planning what goes where, and seeing your future in your new space are energising processes the first time you go through them – despite all the admin! On average more than 90 000 South Africans buy their first homes each year, experiencing this once-in-a-lifetime thrill that they’ll never forget.

If you are planning on retiring to the Cape one day, you're definitely not alone. More and more of South African's over the age of 65 are snapping up luxury and super-luxury properties in the Western Cape. During 2016 more than 70% of property sales in some suburbs were made to people older than 65. That's a lot of silver surfers!

One of the most important aspects of selling a property is to determine the listing price. Not only does it require a fair appraisal of a property’s market value, but also how long the property should be kept on the market to achieve its listing price.

After the subprime mortgage crises of 2007/2008, the South African property market took a good few years to recover and achieve an annual growth rate of 5%. There is, however, one metro that has seen significantly higher house price inflation over the years. In this newsletter, we reveal which city that is, and unpack possible reasons for its upward growth trend.

We often hear of friends or family who decide to trade in the fast-paced city life for a more tranquil one in the countryside or near the beach. And while some people make the move from one major city to another based on a lifestyle decision, there are others who opt to move from rural areas to major cities for better career opportunities.

Do you know what salary you need to be earning to purchase a property in a particular area of South Africa? We thought it’d be interesting delving into our data to address that exact question. To add a little more to the mix, we also analysed the type of vehicles a person could typically afford in line with that salary.

The property market in general has seen some interesting trends over the past few months, which we have explored and shared with you in our monthly newsletter - this one is no different.

It’s no surprise that the South African economy experienced a few hiccups over the past year, which had a knock-on effect across multiple sectors. In light of that, we thought it’d be interesting to research how the commercial property sector fared in 2015 - and our results might surprise you.

In the absence of a significant positive economic turnaround with an investment friendly political climate we will see national house price inflation dropping below CPI, resulting in the loss of real wealth for the majority of homeowners this year. Lightstone’s forecast for 2016 is that nominal house price inflation will end at around 3.5% resulting in real deflation of home values as the Reserve Bank battles to keep CPI within the 6% upper band.

As the holidays fast approach, so does the panic of keeping the family entertained. Board games have long been a firm favourite of families when it comes to passing time during the holiday season. One of the most popular board games of all time is Monopoly, which originated in the United States in 1903

If you’ve been following property media reports lately, you will have noticed that the spotlight has been put on the super luxury property market – which has experienced interesting growth over the past few years.

Our latest research looks at the various price dynamics of properties in the coastal segment, with rather interesting results.

Our recent research into the local commercial property market revealed some interesting trends. We found that transaction activity in the South African commercial market appears to be on the up, despite the sluggish performance we’ve seen over a long period in local and global economies. Following this, we decided to also explore residential property trends, in particular the types and values of properties purchased by sole female buyers, and how these compare to that of their male counterparts and joint buyers.

Research into the local commercial property market reveals some interesting trends. What we find most interesting is the fact that transaction activity in the South African commercial market appears to be on the up, despite the sluggish performance we’ve seen over a long period of time in local and global economies.

As the global village expands and populations increase, cities across the word are becoming increasingly densely populated. In 1950, less than 100 cities had more than one million inhabitants, and in recent years this figure has swollen to more than 500 cities. Nearly 50% of the global population live in urban areas, creating a continual need for an increase in living space amidst declining vacant land stock.

Residential property speculation seems to be at its lowest levels in more than a decade. During the previous housing boom, it was not uncommon to hear of speculators, renovators and investors buying properties, fixing them up and selling them for a profit. Lightstone’s latest analysis shows that while this behaviour was popular during that period, it has reduced significantly in the past five years.

In February 2014, Lightstone forecast that South African house price inflation will end at around 6.7%. Due to all of our major macro-economic assumptions holding true in 2014, the actual house price inflation experienced over the year was right on the money at 6.72%. In 2015, we expect this to decrease to 5.8%. In the event of more favourable economic conditions this figure can edge up to 7.3% while adverse conditions could see house price inflation closer to 3.5%.

“Are you sure you want to buy there? There’s been a lot of crime in that area lately.” This is not something any potential home buyer wants to hear when house hunting, however, in a country with some of the highest crime rates in the world, this is a huge consideration in buyers’ decisions. While it is obvious that there are many reasons for not wanting to stay in an area that has been affected by crime, Lightstone set out to shed some light on the impact criminal activity has had on the wealth generating capability of property investors and home owners.

As we’re all starting to wind down and prepare for the end of year break, we also anticipate some tricky social interactions. Whether it’s ending an awkward silence at the office party, showing your know-it-all uncle at the dinner table that he still has a lot to learn or even just keeping the kids entertained on your way to your holiday destination, you’re always looking for some interesting information to get the conversation on its way. And seeing that data and analytics is the lifeblood and heartbeat of Lightstone, we felt it our duty to provide you with some (not so) useful titbits to help you socially navigate through this silly season

We all grew up with the story of the three little pigs teaching us that age old lesson of investing in quality brick and mortar. Not many versions of the story explore how life could’ve worked out for the pigs had the wolf not vandalised their property; or if there were other asset classes that could’ve grabbed the attention (and resources) of the pigs.

South African property continues to be an attractive investment option for foreign buyers. The latest Lightstone research and data of foreign buying and selling trends within the domestic property market proves that despite the dip the global market has taken in recent months, foreign confidence in South Africa is holding firm.

South Africa as a country has seen tremendous growth in the 20 years of democracy, which has had a profound impact on the property market. There have been many trends within the real estate space during this time, and as with any trends that emerge within an industry, there are bound to be implications. It is important for real estate agents and property professionals to bear these trends in mind, in order to better adapt their business models and to refine their approach.