As at the end of November 2016 the national house price inflation was at 3.6%. Looking at the overall picture at provincial level it is evident the market has been slowing down over recent months and this is more pronounced in the Western Cape, Limpopo, North West, Free State and Mpumalanga provinces. KwaZulu-Natal maintains a steady growth of about 6% and the Eastern Cape is slowly picking up. Despite the slowdown in the Western Cape it still comes out second with a rate of 7.9% after the staggering 25.6% seen in the Northern Cape.
As at the end of August 2016 the national house price inflation was at 4.9%. Looking at the 4 major provinces it is evident the market has been slowing down over recent months and this is more pronounced in the Western Cape and Gauteng with KwaZulu-Natal maintaining a steady growth slightly less than 6% and the Eastern Cape slowly picking up. Despite the slow down in the Western Cape it still comes out on top with a rate of 7.9%.
As at the end of August 2016 the national house price inflation was at 5.2%. Looking at the 4 major provinces it is evident the market has been slowing down over recent months. This is more pronounced in the Cape provinces with KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng joining the trend. Despite the slowdown in the Western Cape it still comes out on top with a rate of 7.8%.
As at the end of July 2016 the national house price inflation was at 5.2%. Looking at the 4 major provinces it is evident the market has been slowing down over the most recent months and this is more pronounced in the Cape provinces with Gauteng joining the trend. Despite the acute slow down in the Western Cape it still comes out on top with a rate of 7.1%.
National house price inflation was 5.45% at the end of June 2016. Western Cape leads the provincial growth at a rate of 7.6%. Buoyant growth is still observed in Gauteng metro with Ekurhuleni, City of Tshwane and City of Johannesburg growing at a rate of more than 4%. While property inflation in Nelson Mandela Metro and Ethekwini continues to grow at roughly 4%, City of Cape Town continues to show exuberant growth at just above 10%. The Low and Mid value segments continue to buck the market trend by growing by more than 8% annually while the High and Luxury segments are inflating at a lower rate closer to 3% per annum.
National house price inflation was 5.27% at the end of May 2016 The Low and Mid value segments continues to buck the market trend by growing by more 8% annually while the High and Luxury segments are inflating at a lower rate closer to 3% per annum. We however still observe buoyant growth in Gauteng metro with Ekurhuleni, City of Tshwane and City of Johannesburg growing at more than 6%.
Annual house price inflation was recorded at 5.2% at the end of April 2016 and decreased by 0.1% from the previous month. Despite stable growth in the mid and low value segment, house price in the high and luxury segment continues to decrease.
House price inflation at the end of February 2016 was recorded at 5.2%. As has been seen over the past 6 months, house price inflation has slowly been declining.
House price inflation as at the end of January 2016 remains stable at 5.5%. The general tendency in the property market is that if national inflation increases, inflation in all value bands will increase. Similarly if national inflation decreases the general tendency would be for inflation in all the value bands also to decrease.
National house price inflation ended at 5.5% for the year of 2015, slightly below the Lightstone forecast. It is not expected that the current downward trajectory in house price inflation will come to an end in 2016 due to a looming recession and the sluggish growth experienced in 2015. Lightstone forecast 2016 property inflation to be less than in 2015 at 3.5%.
This is a new report that we are releasing to provide you with useful and relevant information that will guide you in fully understanding all the various indicators within the property market.
Current annual inflation rate is 5.58% and monthly is 0.32%
With all the major economic indicators down and South Africas credit ratings on the brink of being classified as rubbish, it is crucial for government to act decisively positive. Residential property is the primary investment vehicle for aspiring South Africans and political complacency and destructive economic policies which systematically destroy a healthy property market directly impacts the wealth generation capability of citizens.
National house price inflation was recorded at 6% as at the end of August 2015. This figure has been slowly declining over the past 6 months primarily due to reduced growth in the luxury and high value segment. House price inflation in the mid and low value segment is however still increasing and it at 8.4% and 35.9% respectively. A common trend often observed in the property market is that the luxury segment leads the market through peaks and troughs before the other segments catch up and we therefore expect the mid and low value segments to also peak over the next 12 months.
The stock scarcity in most markets has largely corrected itself after the upswing in building plans passed during 2013 and 2014 and with consumer confidence indices showing a sharp decline we don't expect the double digit growth in building plans passed to continue for much longer. The latest shock in the exchange rate will put more pressure on CPI, which might prompt the reserve bank to be a bit more aggressive in the upward interest rate cycle.
National house price inflation was recorded at 6.0% at the end of June 2015. This figure was slightly down from the previously months estimate of 6.1%. This slowing in house price inflation is in line with what we currently see in the rest of the property market. The first signs of this reduction in property inflation was first seen in 2013 when the Lightstone Luxury value bands inflation peaked at roughly 6.9%. This value bands year on year inflation has been decreasing by more than 1.0% per annum and is currently at 4.0%.
The residential mortgage finance market remains one of the most important factors considered by the monetary policy committee when looking at controlling consumer price inflation. Not only does the reserve bank look at the growth in lending and the impact of potential interest rate changes on disposable income, but it also evaluates data from Lightstone on the trends in asset price growth, loan to values, distressed sales factors and average market risk quality.
The number of building plans passed is increasing and this may lead to the current stock shortage being corrected in the coming year. The trend in 2014 shows that there was an increased proportion of higher valued properties trading every quarter indicating that there might be a small portion of the low and middle market buyers trickling into and increasing activity in the higher value markets. This increased activity might also lead to some price growth recovery in the coming months. A less positive trend is that the average holding period in the highest value market segment seems to be declining which may indicate that downscaling is taking place in this market.
Residential property speculation seems to be at its lowest levels in more than a decade. During the previous housing boom, it was not uncommon to hear of speculators, renovators and investors buying properties, fixing them up and selling them for a profit. This has reduced significantly in the past five years. Between 2004 and 2007, nearly 50% of transacting properties had been bought less than four years earlier. 37% of properties that were sold during that time had been bought within the past two years indicating that many of these properties were bought with the intent of being sold in the near future at a profit.
Market activity is still slowly picking up with total transfer value of over R60 billion per quarter for the last 2 quarters of 2014. New stock supply seems to be growing in the Western Cape with the number of newly registered properties steadily rising in 2014. Coming off a low base, the Northern Cape continues its hot streak of double digit price growth, and the supply of new stock is not picking up in the province indicating that the demand/supply imbalance will keep price growth buoyant.
In February 2014, Lightstone forecasted that South African house price inflation will end at around 6.7%. In 2015, we expect this to decrease to 5.8%. In the event of more favourable economic conditions this figure can edge up to 7.3% while adverse conditions could see house price inflation closer to 3.5%. Lightstone forecasted that the property market would reach a peak in 2014. This prediction realised in the luxury value segment which peaked in the first quarter of 2014 at an annual inflation rate of 7.1%. The subsequent 11 months has seen a steady decline in this segment and was recorded at 5.3% in January 2015.
2014 ended on a stable note with national residential inflation at 6.72% (0.02 percentage points of the 6.7% that Lightstone forecasted in January 2014). The winning market is still the low end affordable sector and we expect this to continue as most mortgage lenders and estate agents aim to further penetrate this market. Weve seen a sharp turn in inflation of the highest value markets, but due to low transaction volumes in this market, we remain cautiously optimistic that it will not have a major capital deteriorating effect before picking up again.
Some meaningful trends have appeared in the South African property market over the past quarter. Some of the most pronounced are the acceleration in house price inflation of properties in the lower and mid value segment and decreases in coastal property inflation. Since the 2008/2009 housing recession all value segments, apart from the low value segment, have grown at roughly the same rate. In the last quarter, annual house price inflation in the mid value segment has increased and is currently at 9.55% while that of the high and luxury segments have remained below the national average of 7.40%. The recorded house price inflation for the luxury value segment was 6.45% in October and decreased from its earlier peak in December 2013.
Year-on-year residential house price inflation was 7.38% nationally, with the low-end affordable market price growth remaining strong. Inflation in the mid-value market segment continues to edge closer to double digits and is starting to mimic the price trends observed in the lower end market. Following Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nenes Medium Term Budget Policy Statement we look forward to seeing the impact of the envisaged investment in dynamic city development on the property market.
Residential house prices in SA grew by 7.58% over the last 12 months according to the Lightstone inflation indices. The low value end of the market - a market of increasing interest to mortgage lenders - is continuing to perform well and is currently growing at 14.9% year on year. Early signs create cautious optimism that the mid-value market might be next to break into a more aggressive growth trend as this maket is fed by buyers upgrading out of the lowest tier.
Residential house prices in SA grew by 7.45% over the 12 months ended August 2014 according to the Lightstone inflation indices. This growth is broadly similar across the different provinces and wealth segments with the exception of very low valued properties that continue to grow at around 13.83%. The recent rating agencies downgrade of four of our big home loan lending banks may, however, dampen this buoyant growth. The downgrade will affect the bankscost of funding and subsequently their price offerings and willingness to lend. And we have seen over the last few years that the strong growth in house price inflation has been strongly correlated with an increase in levels of mortgage lending. It may be some time, though, before we see the effect of this trickle through to the market.
The Lightstone National inflation is 7.51 % for July 2014. Even though house price inflation in the different wealth segments usually tends to differ, inflation in the Mid Value, High Value and Luxury segments is growing at a similar rate. The affordable segment is however, against the trend at 16.15%.
National year-on-year house price inflation is at 7.26%, slightly up from the previous month??s estimate of 7.1%. Growth in the mid value and luxury segments remained relatively stable with growth rates of 8.05 % and 6.88% respectively and the low value segment still outperforms the rest of the market at 14.38%. In addition to strong 9.4% growth in Gauteng where the bulk of property transactions occur, national house price growth is also positively impacted by the double digit inflation experienced in the North West and Northern Cape.